Did this article actually provide some answers? The tariff situation is complex, uncertain, and thus very difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy, nor does it have any comparable historical analogue.

The closest comparison of sanctions to tariffs is that they distort or outright prohibit certain imports, but that’s not close enough to draw many conclusions. The article states that Russian bike stores looked to stocking Chinese-made bikes, which weren’t complicated for export to Russia. Whereas with current events in the USA, tariffs seem to have applied to every country’s imports, of at least 10%, excluding certain exempt categories that are about as fickle as the wind.

That leaves the USA with no economic allies to lean on, and seeing as bicycles are made from base materials often imported, it’s unlikely that USA-made bikes or parts would avoid tariffs either.

But maybe there’s some silver lining: a 10% tariff on acoustic bicycles (<$1000) would be some $100, the same on electric bikes (<$4000) would be $400, but a 10% tariff on a new automobile (USA median price $50k) would be $5000. Under a flat tariff rate, automobiles shoot up by an absurd amount, and that might make micro mobility more popular, as a way to save a lot in both purchase price and annual operating costs.

Even used cars are not immune from tariffs, as the used automobile fleet still needs replacement parts, which are often imported. So suddenly, it may make sense for households to sell an older car and get a new utility ebike, even with the tariffs in place.

Not to say that the tariffs are rooted in any sort of logic or public policy.