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Cake day: June 22nd, 2023

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  • I think, at best, it shows that the observations are consistent with the model, or to take it back to the blurry low light photo… The photo wasn’t obviously not Trump.

    I remember reading the original paper at the time and thinking, if I had been a reviewer I’d have wanted clear acknowledgement of the confirmation bias danger in the methodology. Ideally some sort of quantification of risk. It just seemed like too large a flaw to just be glossed over.








  • No. When looking at a shadow of a bird flying, you can’t understand how the bird is really moving.

    In this case, the “centre-left” isn’t engaging on the issues that people face day to day. The right parties engage with them, but give fascist solutions. The fact that the problem is acknowledged attracts some people. Others it pushes to not vote. It looks like the population is moving right, but it actually that the electorate isn’t representable by the options available.









  • I don’t find the switch that odd. The Conservatives and Labour have shown that they are out of touch with the problems people are facing day to day.

    Reform gain support by paying lip service to those issues. They then point the finger in the wrong direction as to the cause, using it as a way to drive they’re real agenda.

    The greens are also addressing the problems people face, but proposing radical solutions from the other end of the spectrum.

    So if you’re an ex-reform voter could go to a party that’s telling you your problems don’t exist. You go to the party that proposes a different solution.