The inevitable end result will be subservience to China.
citation needed
These folks like to throw around words like subservience, but I’m not sure how you get that without conquering someone militarily. People like to talk about NATO subservience to the US, for instance, but Trump doesn’t seem to be waltzing into Greenland any time soon. Pretty weak subservience if you ask me, given how much smaller Denmark is than the US.
Uh, no, not really, I don’t think the reserve currency makes China subservient to us in any way, shape or form. It’s not like the US can somehow remote control the dollars in distribution out in the world, or somehow control who gets them and who doesn’t. Under our capitalist system, anyone can get their hands on some if they really want. There’s also nothing really stopping them from buying a bunch of Euros too, and honestly, they probably have a bunch of those in savings as well. And some Japanese yen, Korean won, etc etc etc, alongside gold and everything else under the sun. That’s just smart diversification of assets.
Being the global reserve of preference for everybody does confer a certain advantage in ease of trade, but it’s really overblown. It’s not like the Euro or Yuan is some worthless scrap of paper nobody wants. It definitely doesn’t confer any sort of control.
World’s reserve currency. When it inevitably switches to the yuan
That’s neither inevitable nor likely at this point. China’s capital controls, ongoing devaluation of its currency and demonstrated willingness to prioritize the state over investors –at least some of which are positive things I wish we had– make Chinese assets in general and the renminbi in particular not investible to the degree necessary to achieve reserve status. The euro has better chances for now, especially if European debt is unified and becomes more liquid.
citation needed
These folks like to throw around words like subservience, but I’m not sure how you get that without conquering someone militarily. People like to talk about NATO subservience to the US, for instance, but Trump doesn’t seem to be waltzing into Greenland any time soon. Pretty weak subservience if you ask me, given how much smaller Denmark is than the US.
World’s reserve currency. When it inevitably switches to the yen you’ll have your subservience.
Yuan. Yen is Japanese.
Switching to yen would be wild. Imagine a small island nation being the world’s purse strings. Surely could never happen 🤔
By that logic, China is currently subservient to the US. Is it?
To a certain financial extent, the rest of the world is subservient to the reserve currency.
Uh, no, not really, I don’t think the reserve currency makes China subservient to us in any way, shape or form. It’s not like the US can somehow remote control the dollars in distribution out in the world, or somehow control who gets them and who doesn’t. Under our capitalist system, anyone can get their hands on some if they really want. There’s also nothing really stopping them from buying a bunch of Euros too, and honestly, they probably have a bunch of those in savings as well. And some Japanese yen, Korean won, etc etc etc, alongside gold and everything else under the sun. That’s just smart diversification of assets.
Being the global reserve of preference for everybody does confer a certain advantage in ease of trade, but it’s really overblown. It’s not like the Euro or Yuan is some worthless scrap of paper nobody wants. It definitely doesn’t confer any sort of control.
Any other thoughts?
I’ll stop there since you haven’t said anything to discount my points.
World’s reserve currency. When it inevitably switches to the yuan you’ll have your subservience.
That’s neither inevitable nor likely at this point. China’s capital controls, ongoing devaluation of its currency and demonstrated willingness to prioritize the state over investors –at least some of which are positive things I wish we had– make Chinese assets in general and the renminbi in particular not investible to the degree necessary to achieve reserve status. The euro has better chances for now, especially if European debt is unified and becomes more liquid.