Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.
Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.
Hey @[email protected], you seem like someone that might have a good perspective on a question I have. While I’ve always noticed a habit of people to down vote news they don’t like on Lemmy, I feel as though there has been a lot more of this occurring in the last, say, two weeks around election news.
Anything that seems to indicate bad news for Harris or is critical of democrats tends to get rapidly buried, often with little engagement. I worry this is symptomatic of a broader denialism on the left/Harris wing, and that it might lead to another election where people are caught by surprise by something that was a very plausible possibility the whole time.
Since you see a lot more posts than I do week in and week out, does that phenomenon seem to be intensifying over the last week or two, or have I just been noticing it more and it’s always been happening?
Oh, it’s been going on long before now. Negative news about Biden and Biden polling was being buried before, that didn’t really stop until his train wreck of a debate performance.
Who did the burying?
The hive mind, mass downvotes and reports.
This you fam?
Yup! That’s me! Ozma was out of line and repeatedly warned.
Another interpretation of the situation is that through the suppression of a point of view, that while unpopular, was objectively true; ultimately does have an editorial impact on what conversations do or do not happen. So when it comes to “the hive mind, mass downvotes and reports”, you quite literally made an editorial decision to suppress a particular point of view. Nothing Ozma was posting was out of line, but you took editorial issue with his posts and banned him.
That editorial moderation literally curated a culture of “the hive mind, mass downvotes and reports”, that poisons this forum to today, and has furthered a discussion culture which is dismissive/ in-denial of objective reality when it disagrees with their personal sentiment.
For better or for worse, you are the leader of this space. And I do see your logic in why you thought what you were doing was appropriate. However, a leader is ultimately responsible for outcomes.
You can say what you want about @[email protected], and you’ll have no concerns about doing so, but I consider him to be a very careful and judicious moderator. I don’t always agree with him, but he would be very, very low on my list of troubling moderators. I would even say that he’s a moderator that honestly tries to hold himself to a fairly consistent standard. He also explains himself readily if asked. You might disagree with his decisions or opinions, but I generally take him in good faith because he’s also very consistent in his moderation.
This comment is taking a very simplistic and, frankly, cheap shot at blaming one moderator for the collective behavior of an entire community. Moderation isn’t some magical lever that controls the thoughts and actions of thousands of people, yet the you try to pin the rise of “the hive mind, mass downvotes, and reports” squarely on one person’s decision – as though this behavior isn’t broadly distributed in society as a whole. It completely overlooks the natural evolution of any online forum, where people tend to form echo chambers, not because a moderator is pushing buttons behind the scenes, but because that’s just how group dynamics tend to work over time. Blaming it on a single moderater is an easy, surface-level explanation that ignores that fact.
A moderator’s role is to ensure conversations follow the rules and don’t spiral out of control, not to curate the perfect philosophical debate. Forums are shaped by their users as much as, if not more than, by their moderators. People downvote what they disagree with, reports happen because of collective sentiment, not because one person is playing puppet master behind the scenes. The real issue isn’t a ban or a moderator’s leadership—it’s the way communities tend to self-regulate and often become more insular on their own.
Yes, Trump appears to have momentum, but it also appears to be a phantom momentum driven by right leaning polling organizations.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early?utm_source=publication-search
"I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages:
American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers."
Amazing. Thank you for your hard work!
Hopefully.
He makes a pretty convincing case for both the idea that “momentum” is kind of meaningless, but also that Trump slowly gaining for the last 30 days is not. Part of what pushed it over the line (Silver is quick to point out that 49.8 and 50.2 is basically meaningless like the difference between a 49th and 50th birthday; we like round numbers) is the Fox News poll.
As he demonstrates, there is no detectable right-wing bias in Fox News polling despite the obvious bias of their news reporting. I can’t speak to the others, but I’m not ready to dismiss all polls based on the political identification of the organization, if the polling is of high quality.
My gut tells me Trump is going to pull this out somehow. But, then again, my gut literally has shit for brains.
My personal opinion is that it’s going to be far closer than anyone is really comfortable with.
I mean, look at 2020… BOTH candidates got more votes than any other candidate in history. 74 million people out of 330 million voted for Trump. 22.4% of the entire population went “Yeah, he looks good!”
What makes me think Trump will lose again is the issue of women’s rights/abortion.
I don’t think the people most affected by that are the ones answering poll questions, so I don’t think their thoughts are being fully represented in the polls.
God I hope so, but Trump’s continued support, specifically with white women, the largest demographic, is just BAFFLING to me.
I do see some older middle-aged women Trump supporters here, but most of the Trump supporters I see are the guys with the flags on their trucks and stuff.
a few things.
Nate Silver is not fivethiryeight. Silver Bullets is a totally different thing. Nate departed fivethiryeight over contract issues years ago. Since then their models have gone off the rails.
Second, you are fooling yourself if you ignore the reality that Harris has lost all momentum and is backsliding. It’s in all the polling data, and when Nate references high quality polls, none of them vary significantly from the aggregate. Even Quinipiac shows her on her heals.
Third, almost none of those polls (that you mentioned) are used in Nates analysis. I think Fox and Trafalgar and TIPP, but that’s it.
So like, conflating 538 with Nate Silver is an issue. I mean 538 had Biden at 60% to win when he was polling at 38%. Don’t get rely on 538 for anything. Also, there is no significant differences between the so called RW pollsters and everyone else among high quality polls. I can drop that analysis for for you.
Reality is that Harris bungled the campaign thinking she could claim the center and this would motivate voters. America is divided as ever and no one is changing sides. Harris isn’t in a race against Trump and she never has been. She’s always been racing against apathy and the couch, and her rightward shift during and after the convention are what people will see in hindsight as obvious mistakes.
There are still two weeks left. But she blew off Muslim and ME voters early on. And now she’s struggling with black and brown voters who are the apartheid that Palestinians live under as commiserate with their lives experience. I just don’t see how she wins with effectively a prozionist foreign policy in today’s political atmosphere. And it may only be 3-5% of typically democratic voters who are moved in that issue, but that’s more than enough to lose this election, and it’s been a clear signal in the data since the first or second week of September.
If Harris doesn’t distance her self from the foreign policy disaster which has been the administrations support for Israel, I don’t see her pulling this one out.
I don’t see disagree about what you said regarding the polls, but by that same token, the fact that they are in a virtual tie should read to you she has a way to win just as she is.
Harris needs to be +5 in the aggregate of national polling to be tied. Her being in a virtual tie, is her losing badly. This is just established fact as a function of the American electoral system.
If only there was a prominent issue she could change on that would net a +5 swing in her favor…
