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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 19th, 2023

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  • Hmm, I guess they could have written a lot of code lines, but its not like the code they write would be equivalent to million LOC of a coherent whole.

    I’d have guessed it was better for a training set to have lots of different mostly-known-good solutions to common problems and good visibility of the solution space, rather than one linux-sized program, even with the same bug rate between the two. I’d imagine leetcode is monetizing their user generated code this way too. IDK.

    I do actually have a decent GPU i bought 4 years ago in my PC, so maybe I’ll do a few simple experiments again… my preferred approach is to pick a simple but nonlinear problem e.g. binary multiplication of two large numbers, where you e.g. skew the training sample distribution or omit some number pairs and see if the resulting model can learn correct multiplication anyway.

    For that particular experiment, I’d also point you towards some of the 90s literature on “genetic programming”, because you could reuse most of your scaffolding for it. No GPU req’d, ought to learn it fairly quickly.


  • Mercor has ~$1.5B revenue so napkin math would put at 10-20 million contractor hours per year. I’m not very fast but I can type out about a hundred lines an hour fairly regularly, especially boring code like unit tests, data cleaning or OO design patterns. LoC is a bad metric but still. For comparison, Linux and Chrome are ~40M LoC each, AAA games are 3-10M LoC.

    And to your point, they can do data augmentation by rotating nodes in the ASTs, changing variable names, and other tricks to make it even fatter.

    For comparison, the Software Heritage Archive of all open source is ~2 Petabytes / ~30B files. But not sure how much of it is AI slop at this point, or for dead languages / platforms.


  • So, I was thinking about how modern LLMs got better at coding in the last 1 year, despite not having much good new training data.

    Half the job posts I see on linkedin are from snorkel, handshake and mercor etc to train llms for $50-90/hr. So I think there’s been quite a bit of new training data created as those companies scaled up.

    So everyone is paying openai to pay mercor to pay contractors to write code and then regurgitate it, rather than just paying for what they want directly.

    idk. I’m just skeptical that there was actually no human in the loop and that the gains were from unit tests / synthetic TDD.












  • UC Regent / Podcaster Scott Galloway on CNN:

    Yes, we shouldn’t be scared of AI. We should be scared of reckless people with mal intent who use AI.

    In 2001, a woman named Sharon Whipple was mauled by two dogs. And ultimately the owners of the dogs were put in – put in prison. We’re now prosecuting the parents of kids who find unsecured AR15s and use those to kill others.

    I think it’s the incentive. There’s always a wizard behind the curtain here, and I think we have to create incentives, specifically disincentives, and make it clear that, OK, while these bots are in fact coordinating and they show incredible resourcefulness and high IQ, somebody program the incentives here. So, moving to solution, I think part of it is you have to have incentives, specifically disincentives that say you, the company, and maybe individually are responsible for the bad outcomes here.

    I just get this sense if you tell these companies their IPOs might be threatened or they risk criminal prosecution, they’re going to figure this out. We figured out a way to control atomic weapons. I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t be able to control this. And the notion that they’re sentient and it’s out of my control is an attempt to absolve themselves of the guilt and the responsibility that they should bear here.

    The Whipple case was one of the more insane / divisive SF local crime cases, (TrueAnon ep if you aren’t familiar - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMd0mPAqR8A ) - so that’s an odd and interesting pull for Galloway on national news.

    I don’t think repurposing the logic of the NRA “guns don’t kill people, people kill people” is the play though, and I think the incentive framing is too watered down. This isn’t a problem we can nudge our way out of.