Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average
A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.
Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.
It never is I wish this shit would stop because it makes people complacent and is actual bullshit. Also paired with the fact I’ve heard this before and it has been an absolute disaster. Don’t listen to the media just vote Dem so we don’t all get gassed in fucking ovens and if you think that is hyperbole you’re a fucking idiot.
The left are going to ride the optimistic polls right into another “surprising” defeat because they’ll convince each other they don’t have to bother getting off their fat asses and going out to vote.
It’s the slacktivist way.
Centrists will piss away their races fruitlessly trying to pander to Republicans. They’ll blame their losses on progressives. They’ll slander the progressives saying they didn’t vote hard enough, even though the progressives vote harder than anyone. Centrists will never look in the mirror and ask themselves, “wait, if I throw minority groups under the bus, do I even deserve to win?”
You are only going to make me vote harder.
No shit. The Dems, as usual, have failed to give the working class a reason to vote for them. They only ever give reasons to vote against their opponent. This strategy fundamentally fails to motivate anybody who isn’t already plugged into politics.
Well I just checked and apparently we’re gonna solve our problems this time by not voting just like last time…ya know because “both sides”.
Lol. It never is.
Wtf is so confusing to everyone else though? Your wife beating neighbor isn’t suddenly going to see the light. That person gets just as many rights as the rest of us.
The system is broken. The US cannot stand as a singular country anymore. The world is always going to fight and it’s not always going to be our responsibility to police it. I don’t want to be Team America World Police. Let this place gooooooooo. Let these territories make laws that better fit their societies instead of playing two sides of the same coin for eternity.
The only people saying it’s “in the bad” are other pollsters. The pollsters should just figure it out between themselves and leave us to do a Democracy.
It’s not the pollsters…
It’s people writing opinion pieces about polls.
Like always tho, it’s important to remember a billionaire can pay for 100 polls and publish the 1 that agrees with them.
Like, from the article the polls and question are already counting Republican responses more, and at least one of the pollsters is a "Republican pollster:
“I think it’s telling that we’re hanging our hopes on ‘The polls are wrong,’” Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told Axios. “That’s not very strong.”
And he flat out said “our only hope is this isn’t real”
The only thing Republicans love more than being victims is being winners, if they think Dems are going to win state races, they’ll invent reasons not to vote. Otherwise they’d have to vote and lose, they’d rather not “play”.
Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.
The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years…
No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.
And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.
We’re on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.
You’ve been saying this so often and for so long that I’m really curious to see how you’re going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.
I bet you’ve never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didn’t have enough of a voting majority.
Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with them… 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.
And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people won’t elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.
None of that is news to anyone paying attention. Obviously Republicans are terrible but if you’re going to hold Democrats up as our saviors then they need to actually save the day once in a while.
Republicans have faced the same exact power imbalance you described many times over the years and yet they have no trouble getting their legislative agenda passed. Why is that? Answer that question honestly and you’ll know exactly why people blame Democrats for shit Republicans do.
Because they vote party lines as a monolith and the Dems don’t, which is what the person you’re replying to said but you’re too both sides ignorant to hear it. You’re specifically stating right here that you don’t understand how legislation works or the government is intended to function at a fundamental level. Your opinion on things you’re currently ignorant about is about as valuable as an asshole on an elbow.
Progressive policies aren’t popular in the states.
Liberal ones are.
Can you give me the top 5 most popular liberal policies?
Progressive taxation. Affordable Universal Healthcare. Public Infrastructure and Education. Reproductive rights for women. Voting rights. Providing a social safety net. Climate change. Regulating industrial pollution. Firearms regulation. Need any more?
Affordable lol. Yeah a very popular word. Without that word Universal Healthcare just tanks with the people doesn’t it? Gotta have it.
People love it when the things they need to live are… with in reach [pause for massive applause]
Or even maybe… realistically obtainable for most? [pause for wild deafening screams of adoration]
The differences are in implementation, not in goals.
Take affordable universal health care for instance. The progressive position is Medicare for All. The Liberal position is taxing and regulating health insurance companies to force them to cover everyone, and force everyone to buy health insurance.
Got introduced legislation to back up your assertions here or we just making shit the fuck up?
And can you name some progressive policies That are being pushed but people aren’t receptive to?
Depends on how you define “pushed” and “people”. There aren’t really enough progressive politicians to push any policies, and there are plenty of policies that have some support, but not widespread support. Granted, they’re typically policies that would provide widespread benefit, but have been so twisted by propaganda that the people vote against their own interests.
“Free” healthcare and college are good examples, where people are unreceptive because they overestimate the cost and underestimate the cost of the present system.
Which doesn’t mean those policies aren’t popular. They’ve simply been propagandized to be “fairy tales”. The opposition can’t argue over the policy itself because the policy is popular so they have to argue around it. That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular. El-sayed is a great example because he runs on progressive policies and is very popular in his state. If the policies by nature were unpopular he wouldn’t be a popular candidate. Nobody gave a shit that Mike Rogers kept saying El-Sayeds policies are too expensive because El-Sayed cuts through that bullshit to keep people focused on what the policy actually is.
And if we go back to those popular “liberal” policies at least half of them are also progressive policies and some of them I wouldn’t even consider liberal, such as “Public Infrastructure and Education”. Modern American liberalism is against state socialism and state controlled public use of anything is technically state socialism. Liberals have simply adopted parts of progressive policies because they’re so popular not adopting them would be stupid.
That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular.
Popularity isn’t about anything other than the proportion of people in favor. If the majority of people believe the empty arguments around the policy, it will be unpopular.
The trickiest post of politics is dealing with the fact that people are mostly uninformed and uninterested, and grappling with the foolishness of the average citizen.
I guess that must be why progressive candidates pushed out a bunch of liberal incumbents in the primaries.
Oh shit it’s almost like voting in the fucking primaries actually fucking works despite the lemmy narrative.
Yeah in New York and California.
The turdpublicans will just try to cheat anyways.
Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
Well, that’s because they can’t read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.
Calling the majority of any large sample size pedophiles is quite the stretch.
Except for when that sample comes from a massive group of pedophiles.
Wow 38-39M Trump supporting pedophiles not even including all the others! Impressive but seems completely unrealistic.
Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.
While that might be true, I’m concerned that a lot of them are cowards, too cowardly to admit to pollsters that they’re still gonna vote for Republicans, too cowardly to even research what Democrats and independents are offering, and too cowardly to ever break their routine of showing up to vote for Republicans every time.
If the narrative becomes too one sided it might discourage flakey voters. One reason why every election cycle has to be life and death
I’ll take it if it scares more people to go out and vote. Never assume anything is in the bag
I’m not assuming we’ll win but I also don’t believe that fearmongering works well on Dem voters. I saw a study a while back that showed that Dem and independent voters respond much more strongly to positive messaging than negative messaging. So I really don’t buy that scaring and stressing people out works.
Probably why we see so much “Democrats in disarray” messaging being pushed.
Also, all the trying to drive a wedge into the coalition by constantly talking about trans and how Democrats are “throwing them under the bus” and are “transphobic”, etc. This is why the cons constantly pivot to talking about “men in women’s sports” bullshit, too.
It’s all to drive down the vote for Democrats and blunt the force of the blue wave.
I’m fine with a multiprong assault for this, fearmongering to get those that works on to show up, while the candidates themselves provide positive messaging, doesnt seem like those have to be mutually exclusive
What I hate is that some voters seemingly want to vote with the winning “team”. It’s just as idiotic as it sounds, but I do think some people don’t want to vote Democratic if they hear they might not win.
Their poopy leader has strongly rigged the election seven ways from Sunday.
It’s the shy voter effect. When politicians are unpopular, people don’t like to admit to supporting them. In most historical cases, this correlates with low turnout, so the effects on polling tend to cancel out. When Trump has been on the ballot, this correlation hasn’t held up the same way, and polling has slightly underestimated MAGA turnout.
Basically it depends on how “real” you think Trump’s unpopularity actually is. Are these people done with him, or just annoyed enough not to talk to pollsters?
It’s the Eff Off crowd. “🖕” MAGA.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Who could have predicted neoliberal ghouls whispering “at least I’m not the other guy” into voters ears like wormtongue would lead to Luke warm results!?
Especially after the cheating.
If this is the best they can come up with to spread FUD, I’m still feeling pretty good.
