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“We destroyed?” - it was car industry, no? I remember there was something about car industry buying public transport just to shut them down late.r
Eisenhower interstate system in the US was the start of the downfall. It’s a very cool system, but it cost us the trains. I dont know that it can be justified. I like driving and having the freedom to do so, but I would also like to not have to: plus there are a shit load more people who directly suffer because they simply can not drive.
I hope the next wave of logistical genius incorporates more mass public transit, while still supporting some highway network.
Hub style, like airport parking esque, but for bullet trains and light rail. New building would need to require parking as part of the footprint (incorporated decks) to save on space that can be used for public benefit.
Easy to expand on, the counter argument is always “but the cost?!” Like wtf do you think a highway costs per foot? The answer is up to $2,000 per god damn foot. You can buy a lot with that.
That is indeed the case; I believe “we” here refers to society, and functions as a synecdoche for the auto industry
Synecdoche. Haven’t come across a good new word in a while, thanks!
50k dude what are you buying
On average, Americans paid $49,855 for a new car in July, marking the highest level so far this year.
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-in-july-hits-2026-high/
This is enabled by financial illiteracy and arguably predatory 8+ year loans on new vehicles.
What does that calculation look like when also considering used cars?
They’re also really expensive. When Covid shut down plants the price spiked and hasn’t recovered.
I don’t have any data on that though. My perception is that long loans give incentive to keep ised vehicle prices high - they’re almost interest-only payments for the first 1/3 of the loan so the owner of a 3 year old average car must sell it for almost MSRP or they’ll lose money, and unless there’s pressure to sell it at a loss, they won’t, in turn driving up used prices. Thats just my pet theory.
“Cash for Clunkers” had already fucked the used car market; Covid just added to it.
If you take a look at car YouTube and media this is something that been talked about since COVID.
Right now there is no value space for cars and if you’re forced to purchase and can’t pay cash interest rates are a thing too.
There are lots of models with 250 plus days of supply my, my concern is that the auto loan and AI bubbles at the same time, that would make '08 seem fun.
When I was car shopping last spring ( after totaling my 2013 mazda 3 😩) I saw that the most favorable financing seemed to be available for the larger and more expensive models. Like the Mazda 3 and CX 30 had no special incentives but the CX 5 and 90 had some zero 0 interest offers. I imagine that the financing incentives are similar at different credit levels, so there could be perverse incentive to spend more on a larger vehicle because it’s the only way to get a monthly payment that fits someone’s budget.
I also got a car semi recently and hearing how people are stretching the terms from 5 years to 8 (for lower payments) was shocking
Too many people buying above their means
People are extremely financially illiterate it boggles my mind. I know some folks whose car payments are like fucking $800 - $1000 a month. My whole mortgage is $950.
I know some folks whose car payments are like fucking $800 - $1000 a month.
But that’s only $200-250 a week!
That’s a great deal if you ask me. Let me go get me one.
Even if the vehicle itself were free, fuel, maintenance, insurance, taxes/registration, tolls, other taxes, and parking still end up being $1000’s a year. $50k over the lifetime of a vehicle would probably be cheap. This seems to undersell the cost of a vehicle. Granted, some of that cost if paid by people who don’t even own a vehicle. But there’s also the indirect costs, such as increased cost of healthcare from more solitary and sedentary lifestyles, the cost of wars over fuel, etc.
What I’m reading there is that there’s going to be a 2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate) alongside a 2000-style Crash (this time on Generative AI instead of a Net bubble).
Mind you, it will be centered in the US and other countries will mainly feel side effects.
so the time to buy a car will be soon?
Combine that with a crash of the USD itself. Also commercial and industrial real estate never got the same protections as home loans post-2008 so there’s a shit ton of 2008 style shenanigans concerning offices and industrial plots ready to also blow up.
There’s no more road to kick our can down. We must face the can. The can is our reckoning.
Well, the supposedly “temporary” ultra-low interest rates that were the “solution” for the Crisis following the 2008 Crash only really postponned the day of reckonning.
Further, those and other government measures rewarding Asset Owners (read: the rich) on the backs of those whose Income comes from Work, caused inequality to explode, which means more “unused money” around (every additional €1 of income for the wealthy goes almost entirelly into savings, every additional €1 if income for the poor and working class goes almost entirelly into consumption) and all that extra money was seeking investments, any investments, which was visible in the markets by lower interest rates on treasuries (for example, the famous negative German bund interest rates), lower bond yields (meaning higher prices for the same level of risk), higher stocks and so on up the risk scale, a pumping up of lots and lots of extra investment money which ultimatelly inflated several bubbles at the same time.
Further, the ultra-low interest rates also made it cheaper to leverage one’s investments (i.e. invest with loaned money alongside one’s own money), further adding money to those bubbles given the way money is created in the modern monetary system (mainly created by banks when they give loans, with only a small percentage actually created by central banks).
This, by the way, also explains things like the crypto bubble.
I really only mentioned the biggest ones I’m aware off, but I bet we’ll have a lot of bubbles of all sizes exploding as soon as the first big bubble blows and causes a credit crunch and investment retraction.
a crash of the USD itself
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
There’s no more road to kick our can down.
I’ve been hearing people say this since Reagan. “This is the end of the road! The End of History, even!”
But what’s the alternative? Does the US just pop out of existence? Do all those creditors take a massive inflationary haircut on their outstanding loans? Does the US suddenly shift to an export economy to get… Japanese Yen? Russian Rubbles? Mexican Pesos? Nigerian gold bars?
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode? Why would a lack of an alternative sustain an unsustainable system which appears to be cracking under it’s own weight right now? The US govt being forced to issue debt at unsustainable interest rates is the only cause of death you need if people don’t think they’ll get their money back. They will figure out an alternative in that situation.
USD’s supremacy isn’t just from being the “safest” asset you can hold but also that you need it to buy energy from the middle east, since they agreed to only trade in USD in exchange for US military protection. Also because everybody else uses it. I doubt BRICS will be the alternative though, even if it is a half hearted attempt to get around SWIFT and USD.
And right now it seems to be gold. China has been dumping US treasuries since 2020 and moving heavily into Gold. France did the same. Althought thats not a viable alternative… there simply isn’t enough Gold. In an ideal world we would move towards a Keynsian basket of goods as the international unit of exchange instead of a domestic currency but we’ll probably pick the dumbest, least painful in the short term, most painful and debilitating in the long term answer… nobody plants trees anymore.
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode?
Because value is relative. In order for the value of the USD to fall, the exchange rate has to rise. And that implies people are trading a surplus of USD for another thing.
What is that thing?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD diluting its own value because interest rates are so high for US treasuries they enter a death spiral borrowing more (printing) to pay for the borrowing they already did, especially as debt rolls over from 1-2% to 5%+?
It’s not looking good… there’s no debate that the debt is growing faster than the US economy. Trump blew up the tacit deal requiring USD for energy. Now UAE and others are willing to trade oil in chinese yuan or rubles. Their security agreements with the US apparently weren’t worth the paper they were printed on considering the US did the exact opposite of what they promised to those OPEC nations, in fact they actively caused this dumb war with Iran that’s destroying plants and infrastructure in the gulf. Thats worse than reneging on your security promises…
Do you think the USD is headed in a positive direction? What do you think is going to happen?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD
Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods?
2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate)
The 2008 crash was also an auto debt crash. That’s why you had Cash-For-Clunkers rolled out in 2009 followed by Obama and Romney arguing over an automotive bailout in the 2012 election.
Also the reason you can’t buy a new Mercury/Pontiac
Indeed and that mofo is going to be steam roller too.
ASP for new cars in the US 50k average salary 66k roll a few grand into your new car and you get a 1k a month for 84 months
These threads are always full of people saying, “why don’t you just…” The problem is you are suggesting coping methods for a plethora of problems, in a vacuum individually. You’re failing to put all of the problems of cars, trucks, and their requisite infrastructure together as the awful, smothering whole that it is.
Listen, I agree in practice.
But I would not quote “Unusual Whales” for economic advise. This is an AI account that posts “hot tips” for attention.
The deliquency rate for auto loans has been in headlines since at least March. This is a big show slow ship and it’s bait to assume some AI account is going to tell you the day it goes down.
yep AI has gotten so good that even people that hate it can’t even detect that it’s an AI account.
Someone not paying attention screenshotting a quote of a quote is not AI being good enough to evade detection, it’s someone not bothering to check if it’s AI.
Ban cars from
populatedareas.Or ban cars from Gaia.
Does this mean we’ll finally get some decent cheaper used cars on the market? (Just kidding, we all know the answer.)
You can get a decent used car but it’s like $25k and up
It’s why everything I own is 3 plus years old. Cash for clunckers was the biggest fucking scam.
Mine are both over 10 years old. One needed a new head gasket and the $8500 that cost was thousands cheaper than any car we’d consider.
This typifies how screwed up things are right now. It makes more sense to rebuild an engine than buy new - that was unheard of 20 years ago.
Holy shit, $8500 for a head gasket job?? We’re on to a whole other problem here, good lord that’s insane.
When I was looking in 2011, it was still ~22k for several-years-old Corollas/Civics. They just don’t lose any value.
My current car cost 4k in 2020. It was made in 2007 and has only costed 1k in repairs that weren’t basic maintenance.
It’s ugly as hell, and honestly sounds like shit too, but it runs. Still good gas mileage too
Reject modernity buy ugly ass cars
The headliner on my shitbox has started falling off and honestly it adds character.
Staple it back up!
I want to find those sparkly pins my girlfriend had in her 91 Pontiac
I’ve taught car maintenance and repair to single soldiers for almost two decades. The issue with the Internet’s default to buy used is unless you can repair it yourself or have someone that can work on your car cheaply it might not be the best call.
Hell, even being able to diagnose problems a bit can help avoid being scammed by places recommending unnecessary repairs or maintenance.
Oh and as someone who worked as the guy who told you all the stuff that needed to be done at a shady dealership, they will definitely recommend whatever they can. And then its $180 and hour for labor and its .5 hours of labor to change an air filter. I couldn’t cut it in that world…
For soldiers? So Dodge chargers and Ford mustangs? Ya those will fall apart after a couple years. There are plenty of reliable brands, most of which are not American or European.
Shit, I won’t buy a vehicle that’s not Japanese. Kawasaki for my bike and Toyota/Subaru for my cars.
I don’t understand. Why don’t people buy cheaper and/or second hand cars?
Around COVID, the used market went insane because the supply of new cars got fucked up. People really liked that their well-used car was getting a high price and now new sellers want a piece of that. Kinda like how someone is told their house is only going to sell for 2x what they paid instead of 3x and they throw a hissy-fit.
So used cars are also really expensive, which is…fun. Couple that with the insanely toxic car culture of the US and you get a perfect recipe of sellers over-pricing and people who are FAR too eager to pay those prices. Market pressure almost doesn’t exist because that would imply people actually have choices(to own a car) or willpower(to maintain what they have).
Why don’t poor people just buy more money?
The meme is overstating the price of a new car a bit, but the fact is that buying a used car can almost be just as much. You’re just paying for regular maintenance vs. a car payment
New cars need regular maintenance too.
The upside is you “know the history” and can reasonably assume that if you do the maintenance the car will last a reasonable time. And if not the warranty and laws (lemon law) gives you some way out.
Buying used you do not have the knowledge of maintenance, nor the lemon law protections, nor the warranty protections (third party warranties are pretty much scam). So you’re relying on the gamble that the car you are buying will last, or you can make it last.
People with knowledge of vehicles and ability to repair have a leg up in that gamble, but it’s still a gamble.
Used car market is kinda insane right now, even worse for trucks.
It’s bad enough it’s affecting bikes, but you can still get reliable used bikes for 2-5K
It’s bad enough it’s affecting bikes, but you can still get reliable used bikes for 2-5K.
This is an insane thing to read as a dutch person
Motorbikes, I got my new commuter-style bicycle in the US for 600 USD in 2019, the same bike goes for 700 USD now. But you can’t use a bicycle to commute in most of the US.
Motorcycle prices in the US are weird, new big bikes are similar to what the rest of the world pays, but small bikes, they only import the most expensive trims. I got my used cb150 verza here in vietnam for 700, new they go for 1400 plus ~600 for import and other fees. They sell a bike with the same engine for 4-5000 USD in the US.
The effect of this is that young people and people who just need a bike to get around town either have to pay 3x more than they would over here for the same thing, or more likely, they buy a 20 year old liter bike for the same price, or simply never realize there’s an alternative to cars.
I live in the US and I want to start riding a Vespa-style scooter for my local errands. It’s crazy how difficult this is, and I live in a suburb of a major city (Philadelphia). There are only two scooter shops within 50 miles or so, and their cheapest scooters are over $6000. Used scooters are virtually non-existent, and even if I found one, the scooter shops won’t service anything you didn’t buy there. I could buy one on Amazon for $800 plus $400 shipping but I’d have to service it myself and I feel like that would be taking my life in own hands. I’d like an electric scooter but that’s virtually non-existent as well.
Then I watch videos from Vietnam and China and scooters are fucking everywhere.
As Kestrel said, motorcycles aren’t that much harder to learn, though I started on a semi-automatic Honda Wave.
What they said about why they’re more expensive isn’t quite accurate; a new Honda Wave is 800-1200 USD out the door here in Vietnam. The Honda Grom has the same engine in America, a little bit nicer trim. It costs 4000, plus dealer fees. The scooter isn’t more expensive to manufacture in America, they just know since nobody else is selling an 800 dollar scooter, by increasing prices, they can force anybody who wants a basic scooter to pay 5x more.
That said, scooters and smaller motorbikes are dead simple to work on. Scooters are a little more complicated since the CVT usually has its own oil system you have to change periodically, but still very easy to work on.
As far as utility goes, a light-weight motorcycle with a rack will carry anything a scooter will and can weigh just as little. I can fit 2 medium suitcases in the side-racks of my bike (they fold outwards), and a large one on top, or just tie as many grocery bags as I like to the rear rack, plus I can hang a couple sandwiches from 1 mirror and a couple coffees from the other when I want to go have lunch in a nice place.
Maintaining 65+ on a highway literally requires me to pin the throttle and sit in an aerodynamic tuck, if you want the capability to go long distances on highways without doing that, you probably want more than 12 HP. But it’s a moot point in America because for the same price as a new 13 hp vespa or Honda ADV160 or more-than-only-technically-highway-capable Yamaha xmax, you can get a much more capable machine.
Be super careful about unknown name amazon scooters and bikes. Often they have lawnmower engines and pretty much the worst suspension you can imagine.
If you’re thinking about looking for a used bike, make a thread in a motorcycle comm, I’m sure some lemmings would be happy to look at the deals in your area and make some recommendations.
Here’s my current bike, it’s carried me across SEA twice:
I’m sure you’ve thought of this, but maybe just get a motorcycle? They’re not that much harder to ride than a Vespa, and while they’re a bit more dangerous, most of the danger either way is getting hit by a car…
A lot of what made Vespa-type scooters historically pretty cheap was the 2-stroke motors, which are being phased out because they’re unreliable and bad for the environment. But, they were cheap. Unfortunately, as you’ve discovered, the 4-stroke scooters are now much more expensive. And for whatever reason we’re not importing a lot of electric scooters (tho where I live people love renting those Lime scooters, but you can’t like, buy an equivalent vehicle).
Random thought that may not be helpful: When I lived in NYC there were lots of delivery guys with electric scooters. Maybe try to find out where they’re getting them?
Huh, just found a 2000 Whizzer Motorbike for sale for $800 on craigslist. That might be my speed. Apparently they top out at 40 mph but that would probably be OK.
I get the sense that you are making your choices based on how intimidating the aesthetics are rather than the actual way they ride.
There’s a reason we moved away from that design a century ago. The suspension, wide tires, frame geometry, etc on a modern bike or scooter all make it easier to control.
A small-wheel scooter with a low rake angle sacrifices stability for convenience and compactness.
Stability in this case means how much the thing wants to stay up while under power, a scooter might lean over and start trying to turn if you just reach up to adjust your glasses with 1 hand without being careful to keep the it going straight. The benefit of low stability is that you can lean the scooter over with less effort and stand it back up quicker when you want to go around turns.
Maybe ask friends if you can just try out their bikes before you make any decisions.
I just don’t see any electric scooters around here anywhere. I kind of have my eye on this thing called an Aventura-X which is a vespa-style electric scooter that can go 35 mph ($3K) or 50 mph ($5K). I feel like that price kind of defeats the idea in the first place, and I still couldn’t get it serviced anywhere.
I’m straight-up afraid of motorcycles; somehow the sit-down style of a vespa seems more accommodating. You’re of course right about the danger of being hit, but I’m already an avid bicyclist so I assume I’m going to die that way anyway. I could just ride my bike everywhere, but of course that’s slower and the logistics of getting a bike ready for a ride is the big pain in the ass.
I’m straight-up afraid of motorcycles
Motorcycles occupy a weird place culturally in America. Here in Vietnam, they’re as mundane and scary as cars in the US. I uploaded an entirely unremarkable drive across town from last night, maybe seeing everyone from grandmas to children on bikes will help break that perception.
omg they have a sidecar for dogs, that’s hilarious. And swappable batteries? I kinda love these, TBH. But yeah gotta go with what you can get a local shop to work on. If you already ride bicycles, I’m sure you’ve considered the e-bike thing. I have too but they’re also really expensive, the one I wanted ended up being like $8K and I was like bruh that’s used car prices.
I refuse to own a car. Worthless in my opinion.
Ban cars from populated areas? That is anti-freedom! This fantastic game lets you explore they joys and freedoms of car ownership: https://store.steampowered.com/app/3031880/Car_Park_Capital/
Honestly they just need to make car parking a real constraint in sim city games. That would do more to show people what a blight cars are than anything else.
The car I bought new in 2017 just ticked over 100k miles. I estimate I’ve spent $50k over these 9+ years on car payments, interest, gasoline, maintenance/wear items, mods, and insurance for something that is parked for 95+% of the time. Ride share cannot beat $0.50/mile yet, I’m hoping my current car can last until it does.
I have owned a car for 30 years, and never got close to $50,000. I once made the poor decision to buy a brand new $19,000 VW in 2009, never again. Only suckers buy new cars.
I had to get something to pull a small trailer (like 2,900 dry weight). The literal cheapest option in 2023 was a Jeep Grand Cherokee and it was 44k sticker. I wish I could find an older pickup but people realize what they have and are charging so damn much for them.
I know the used market can vary by region, but if you live in the US I find it hard to image not being able to find a running 90s f-150/250 for under 5k, or a mint condition one for under 10k
If I could buy a 90’s F250 for that price I wouldn’t have just purchased my 2011. It took me six weeks of 4+ hours a day of searching to find a truck that wasn’t silly. The car market is bad, the truck market is worse and if you live in the Midwest you get a price bump too.
Only suckers buy new cars.
well you need them to or you’d not be able to buy used. Having no choice though ? that’s what sucks.
brand new $19,000 VW in 2009
Passat? My dad made the same mistake. German engineering lmao.
Meanwhile the 2006 toyota I inherited from him still runs fine, though the paint and the plastics are sad.
Toyota supremacy.
I say this as a German.
How much have you spent on maintenance, repairs, fuel, insurance, fees, taxes etc for your cars in those 30 years?
Sounds like a lot of people were convinced to borrow way more than they could afford for a status symbol no one should care about. Financial literacy should be taught in middle school.
I have 20k in debt just buying a Toyota corolla. I think there is a lot of people who bought status symbols, but there are a lot of people who just need a car that isn’t going to break. If I bought used and something happens that would cost me 5k, which can easily happen, Im screwed. I dont know what the answer is. A few years ago, I had a job two blocks away, now I have a job 50 min away. I have to get there somehow and its not like my job is going to be ok with me saying “I need a week off because my car broke”
Never in my live did I expect to live through an Economic Crash related to Penis Compensation Devices …
Yes, there should be accounting and financial classes in middle/high school. However, then the (predatory) loan industry would have less prey. They “love the poorly educated.”
