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- cross-posted to:
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Market debut of AI company behind Claude chatbot will be one of largest in US history, a test of its financial viability
Anthropic has publicly filed for a stock market listing, one of the largest debuts in history. The company’s float on the US market is likely to be a high-water mark in the multitrillion-dollar AI boom and a test of its financial viability.
Analysts and investors have valued the San Francisco-based company, founded in 2021, at more than $1.5tn. The company, which will will list under the symbol ANT, confidentially filed with US financial regulators for an initial public offering in June.
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I hope that whoever invests in this loses it all.
That’s everyone with a 401k and/or Roth IRA (unless specifically trying to avoid AI investments instead of index funds. 🫠
We believe AI is one of the most consequential technologies in human history
HAH
The big companies have to IPO to transfer all this investor debt to mutual funds and retirement funds before it goes crash. Can’t be them on the hook for this when it pops.
And if the debt is in the retirement funds, it’s a guarantee that the government will bail it out because they’re holding old people hostage. Yuck.
Let the retirement funds crash. Maybe it’ll finally teach them not to trust crime-riddled, unregulated Wall Street with their futures.
They will get a nice bailout from whatever Democrat or Republican is in charge.
Fed can’t bailout shit with inflation running as hot as it already is (they’re already fudging the numbers to keep Social Security payments down). Dumping the bag onto retirement accounts (mutual funds, ETFs, etc.) is the bailout.
Exactly.
We should have let the market crash years ago, so we could begin building something more sustainable in its place.
Instead, it’s what, tripled in size more or less? The fall is only going to be that much harder as a result…
Just pile it on the backs of the damn lazy youths amiright
Yeah. They haven’t contributed nearly as much as my old ass. What gives them the right?!
Coming out here all like “oh I just want what you had” and “why are things worse” and shit like “social security will be insolvent for me” like a bunch of whining hippies.
Luckily S&P is blocking some of these shenanigans by not allowing inclusion into the S&P500 for companies that are not profitable even if they become publicly listed. This includes all of the AI only companies.
Because so many large investment funds have dumped their money in these AI companies they will still take down the entire stock market when they go bust. There is so much money which does not exist inside of the bubble.
Do you have any articles or more information on the S&P blocking them?
I checked vanguard when spacex floated and they had a good explainer. I didn’t dig deep enough to find it on the S&P documentation, but in this article under 3 things to consider, it mentions S&P requires a company to be profitable in its recent quarter or the sum of its previous 4 quarters https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/staying-grounded-moonshot-ipos.html
article: The S&P 500 won’t bend its rules to let SpaceX in early
“In a Thursday news release, the index provider announced it was holding firm on all three contested criteria — the one-year waiting period before new listings can qualify, the requirement for demonstrated profitability, and minimum public float thresholds — regardless of how large a company may be. ‘Exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization,’ the company said. The decision preserves existing methodology without alteration.”
How soon do you think the U.S. government will be bailing out AI companies like they did so many other industries that were “too big to fail”? They’ll get our tax money one way or another.
pretty hard to bailout 1.5trillion, let alone 4tn.
just throw it on the debt pile Republicans have built up over decades.
~5 years
Greed and FOMO are going to drive a lot of investors to buy into the Anthropic IPO just like it did SpaceX. That seems to be what’s driving the market these days. Admittedly, that’s somehow been much more sustainable than I ever thought possible, and as a result I’ve missed out on some significant gains, but that’s because I know for certain this can’t go on forever. Eventually someone’s going to be left holding the bag.
Based on the laws of the universe. It will pop precisely when I decide to invest.
But I won’t. So it won’t pop. I’m sorry.
I will set up a go fund me for you for $300 when this ipo happens if you promise to buy a share.
Could you at least invest a dollar?
Yes keep inflating that bubble
Yeah well my IPO is valued at 2 bobillion and comes with a coupon for a free 3 piece meal.
These cretins live in a reality that is out of our reach and generates negative consequences they never feel or are held accountable for.
Money is fake. Meet your neighbors.
2 bobillion
What does the first b stand for?
Bobillion. Its recursive.
Money is a shared delusion. It’s been fun. But it’s time to break the delusion and start asking ourselves what our money is actually for, what we actually need, and whether money is still the only way we can get those things.
Yuck
How did they justify that valuation? All i could find in the article is what they EXPECT AI to do and they have a “rapidly growing customer base”?
Nothing about how they plan on providing $1.5t of value, just “its AI its gonna cure cancer do you wanna get left behind?!?”
Maybe a combination of cocaine and dice.
Look up project Stargate, follow the money, it wont take much digging to figure out the why and the who.
While (probably) not technical fraud, there is massive accounting BS in their financial reporting. $3.6B in Sales and marketing expenses has $400B+ hidden through capitalizing free services as “customer acquisition”, but rest of it is commissions paid to GOOG/AMZN partners, and shouldn’t even be part of revenue. They also capitalize training/fine tuning costs even though 1 month release schedule for model versions make previous model version worthless.
So the big lies are “operational profit” and revenue is greater than compute costs. They will have to drop Q3 results officially before IPO, and reason they didn’t is their Q2 apparent revenue to compute cost ratio lie, also hid that they got $2.5B free rental worth from xAI as part of their circular fraud deal to rent from them temporarily at absurdly inflated prices.
They are simply going to be the first. The first to get barely vetted before the IPO is approved. The first to have any circumstances waived. It won’t matter how bad the financials are because it’s already too late. The bubble is leaking but it’s still inflatable so just keep pumping because the only people left with enough money to keep it afloat are the only ones who are gonna make money when it crashes.
SpaceX was first. Even bigger fraud with circumstances waived to get in early on NASDAQ indexes. It’s a much larger overspending AI money pit, and still highly inflated.
The headlines have finally started turning and calling it what it is: a bubble economy about to burst.
They’ve finally started saying “these companies are overvalued with no real strategy or profitability, and the receipts are about to come do.”
So what do the tech companies do in response? “Quick! Pump and dump! Pump and dump!”
It’s a fucking ponzi scheme. How have we not learned this yet as a society?
I wonder who will be stupid enough to buy this burning stock. With the value based on fantasy, the gargantuan losses being real, the tangible value being close to zero (most of them don’t even own the data centers, they lease them) and a product that will probably never achieve what they promise, they will need a special kind of customer. Maybe they should do mailings to the people who bought Trumps’ crypto coins…
You’d think the people whose jobs it is to understand that would see through it. But if they’re approved for the IPO, then I think some funds will be forced by policy to buy
… fuck that lol.
This is going to be a problem when all of our 401ks buy into it and we all end up being the bagholders
I’ve been trying to move my retirement accounts into funds that are better insulated from an AI bubble pop, but it’s challenging. I mainly moved into funds based on international stocks and low- to mid-cap stocks. The high-cap stock funds are almost entirely AI-fueled companies right now. They’re making crazy returns, but I just don’t trust them.
Most etfs that focus on dividend yields have very little AI exposure because AI companies don’t make enough money and aren’t mature enough to issue dividends.
Shit’s gonna pump then dump like you’ve never seen before.
Sooner or later a Greater Depression will come. Hopefully I will have sold my old PC, ditched my debt, and saved up enough Euros or Yuan to buy myself some Blackwell GPUs.
AI is the future. Anthropic is a dinosaur, doomed to become a historical curiosity.
I really don’t get the “AI is the future” thing. Future of what? Any of the things it’s capable of doing I would rather do myself, and the things it’s not capable of doing are the things I consider most valuable.
My future, at the very least. It has allowed me to do things that were simply outside my ability to feasibly do. I certainly can’t write programs or make art. My local AI restored some game DLC into working order, doing the archaeology and rewiring.
You are welcome to be oldschool. Your cohort are simply taking an path that will look increasingly strange to future generations.
No one is born knowing how to do anything. No technology has ever made others look strange except for early adopters. No one chooses to ride a skateboard or bike over a car and gets looked at as someone who’s old school.
You have AI psychosis. Please seek treatment. You are capable of things, actually.
No thank you. The glasses I use, my medicine, the books that store the thoughts of others, my car, and my fridge augment my abilities. Far as mother nature is concerned, we are freakish, because we aren’t as tightly bound to her rules and timescale.
AI is no different. My “psychosis”, is just part of an emerging society that is unrecognizable to you.
We have the best depressions over here. Depressions like you’ve never seen.
I did see one podcast recently (so could equally be BS) that suggested one of the things that could make the AI bubble pop, and take the stock market with it, was if one of the big IPOs wasn’t successful.
Eg, if Anthropic’s IPO was undersubscribed.
I’m dubious that would happen, because greed, but will be interested to see how it plays out.
