“People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.
The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.
I’d like to point out that in an interview where Nate Silver came out looking like an arrogant ass, he predicted Trump would lose the last election.
oh are we listening to him again? i aint buying any of that copium again.
ha oh is the coin flipping on the uniparty! that must mean theyre going to switch to the rainbow colored genocide bombs instead soon. “democracy”
This doesn’t work when people can see the difference with their own eyes. Your talking points are out of date. Возвращайся домой — получишь новые указания.
Enjoy your “Both sides bot” tag on lemmy. Don’t care if you’re a bot or not, might as well be.
The worst part of right before an election is all the accounts spamming “don’t vote it doesn’t matter” out of nowhere…
Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol
He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.
All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.
Yeah this it’s just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren’t paying attention.
People have a hard time separating people’s expertise from their general opinions. Nate Silver the talking head is kind of an idiot. But Nate Silver the election modeling expert is worth taking seriously.
Definitely agree.
Man there is nothing we love more than counting our chickens before they hatch, huh?
Strong polls encourage people to vote. Weak polls discourage participation and donations.
Just this year - Michigan primary - one campaign says their donations plummeted when fake polls claimed they were far behind.
And yet I keep seeing people on Lemmy say that polls being good discourages people from voting
Every positive poll, half the comments are people saying it’s a psyop. Every negative poll, half the comments are people saying it’s a psyop. I genuinely have no fucking clue what results people would consider above board at this point.
The science doesn’t back that up.
Ask for numbers
My local ads have reverted to the shaming tactic - “your vote is private, but anyone can look up whether you voted or not”. From my dad who’s been working the early voting location for my county, it sure sounds like they’ve had one hell of a turnout.
Don’t listen to polls, don’t let people keep you from voting to improve things, don’t put it off…
VOTE!!!
Nah, it’ll be alright. Plenty of people are voting and I have things to do. Besides, both parties suck anyhow so nothing’s gonna change.
Literally what a coworker said to me today.
What well be funny is when it is a blue wave and nothing changes. They stilll let him do whatever he wants. Is that the tipping point?
“People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged
Especially Nate Silver’s interpretation of them.
I voted, you should go vote too.
Fuck hope. Get angry and vote.
Shut up and Nate and fuck Ezra Klein.
Ezra Klein is fucking insufferable.
