Uh oh…
Does this news have anything to do with the November elections?
This article conveniently ignores the fact that Anthropic is reporting a second profitable quarter to investors.
Yeah.
I don’t like Anthropic’s long term prospects, but OpenAI is specifically in trouble, near term.
Their whole premise was becoming a Facebook-style “where else are you gonna go?” captured market on the consumer side, and that is clearly not happening. They wanted an enterprise monopoly, and those business customers are looking elsewhere.
Their ass is cooked.
Even if openai tanked tomorrow it would just be bought by Microsoft and become copilot AI.
The failure of the company is bad for current investors but it’s not a public company and as others have mentioned there is not yet enough instability in the rest of the industry. Google is still trucking along without issue even if they don’t make the news and people are still giving Muse access to all their shit.
It’s not that simple, as:
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Other companies/institutions have heavy investments in OpenAI.
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Other companies’ expected long-term revenue depends on OpenAI.
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They are the “face” of LLMs to finance world. If they tank, the illusion shatters, and investments pulls out of “AI” everywhere.
I agree that Google, Meta, the companies will be fine, as you said. Nvidia/AMD will be fine. Even XAI will be fine. The physical companies and their business aren’t going anywhere.
But their stocks will drop precipitously, and drag others into the rut with them like a black hole.
So they’ll drop from inflated to fairly priced?
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I suspect we won’t know their real state of finances until they go public and are held to a higher standard for their accounting practices: https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/
“profitable”
https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/
Uh huh. And that’s despite government propping and no returns on stocks on top of possibly cooking the books.
Something big is coming. The number of startups that investors have poured billions into that do random in-the-middle bullshit to try and scrape pennies from companies’ budgets is incredible. These products aren’t real. All the investment went into carving money off… the investment. It’s self eating.
WeWork was declared a failure when it lost 6 billion in a year. OpenAI is net negative 17 billion a year…
Yes, but consider that AI being successful would maybe let your boss fire you, and they super duper want to fire you and everyone.
There is quite a difference from an investor standpoint in a product that replaces all human labor vs coworking space.
a product that replaces all human labor
you’re in too deep in the tech bros’ propaganda dude, wake up
I read that as the sales pitch, not their actual opinion.
I still have yet to see it adequately replace any human labor
I have seen it taken a serious hit at call centers.
As someone who has attempted to communicate with an AI call center, that tech seems pretty far from prime time
Level 1 support was never a satisfactory experience, the employees there never were allowed to say anything beyond some things that fit into a LLM context.
“Adequately” I still stand by my assertion
Does your understanding of adequately matter to ex call center employees?
And what about the artists who had their jobs absorbed by AI?
Then you haven’t been using the right models or trying.
“come on bro you’re just holding it wrong”
Let’s say for a moment that AI really is as capable as AI bros want you to believe it is. Having used some AI models at my work (network engineer), I’m not so convinced, but I’ll put that aside for a moment.
The pinch of the AI vise is going to be the cost. All the AI companies are running at loss to try and capture the market, and they’ll need to charge a lot more for access to AI once a winner is determined.
Are you willing to pay 10x what you pay right now for access to an AI agent? Because that’s looking like what they’ll have to do in order to turn these companies profitable.
All the AI companies are running at loss
That is if you include training. Look at deepseek for an idea of inference costs. At that level AI coding is sustainable (but not worth $2tn).
Why wouldn’t you include training? Training is vital to their product.
Is it? It’s vital to the tech giants marketing and trillion dollar valuation. But I don’t think it’s vital to most of their clients anymore.
I pay zero, not even electricity because it’s being generated in this building, for my agent. It’s running entirely on my computer and it’s decent enough. The LLM subscription companies are eventually going to fail because everyone and their dog is going to be able to run their own models.
Not of they can’t buy computers any more.
I’m wondering if we’ll get a rise in old school tech due to high cost of ram, CPUs and gpus.
Windows will struggle if that’s the case.Linux will be fine.
I’ve already seen it replace people in various roles successfully. It’s getting better – will it replace everyone? No, but it will be disruptive and it seems foolish to not acknowledge what is obvious - jobs will be affected.
My honest problem with AI is the hallucinations.
They’ve been shown to be a mathematical inevitability, and that means everything they ever make must be fully reviewed.
And that’s antithetical to everything I’ve known about computers in my career.
The entire reason why computers are so useful and reliable is because, until now, they always produce the same outputs given the same inputs.
One of the AI agents I’ve interacted with was in a GPS monitoring system for fleet vehicles. I was a supervisor of technicians, and I got a report that a company truck with license plate [X] ran a stop sign.
They replaced their standard search function with an AI bot, so I asked it which vehicle in the fleet had license plate [X]. And it confidently responded with a vehicle that didn’t have that license plate.
A standard search function, comparing an input to database values for vehicles wouldn’t have that problem. And that’s why I’m so sure this is a bubble and not a major technological market disruption.
You literally said “replace all human labor” though.
Haha I’m not a AI Stan. I am the only one it seems truly worried about never having a job again.
Their investor pitch is this technology replaces all human labor. That’s their framing not mine.
Jobs have already been affected, yes. Not “adequately” done in lieu of a human, though.
And it still takes a human to steer the things.
Our company built an “AI” system that literally only searches our other shitty system and gives a usable interface. It is not AI and im sick of every database interface being called AI.
LLM at least makes sense from a nomenclature perspective.
10 years ago it was “smart thermostats” “smart x” just because they could connect to the internet.
This is the same gilded bullshit these companies always spin.
I think you’re probably a couple of orders of magnitude too low.
even better is the open weight, free models you can tailor to specific needs, which directly undercuts these massive “ai” companies.
So if/when those hikes happen, those self hosted models are going to look a lot more appetizing too
Inference keeps getting cheaper. “Good enough” is a pretty low bar.
Are you willing to pay 10x what you pay right now for access
That’s really the crux of the matter. Regardless of if it’s fit for purpose to replace paid labour, is it actually financially viable in any way to replace humans with an AI model that works but costs several times more than a human work force while not being able to be held legally accountable.
If this future AI agent solves the task at a fraction of the time, it can still be financially viable at several times the cost.
Riiiiight…
That only makes sense if money is made on the output. What you’re basically saying is X Toy Company will make more money if they make more toys. What you’re forgetting is that there has to be a demand for those toys. So X Toy Company can’t replace workers with AI unless there’s more demand for the toys than there is currently able to be fulfilled and there’s no evidence for that across all sectors of the economy.
Are you willing to pay 10x what you pay right now
They lost $20B on $50B revenue. That means they only need to double the price to make up the loss and have a profit.
I’m fairly certain these numbers are made up. Additionally, I’m betting those numbers include investment dollars, as opposed to paid revenue.
That’s still a ton when you consider how much professional users are spending.
They’re playing all kinds of games with the numbers right now. They’re trying to IPO so hiding costs under other headings outside the core business. Don’t trust what they openly state. It’s far worse.
Maybe but you have to work with the data you have, not the data you want to see.
Imagining that the enemy is on the brink of collapse isn’t a good mind set when you are fighting something. It encourages laziness.
Get help.
“It hasn’t affected me so that means it’s the same for everyone else” idiocy level thinking.
I don’t use it but my wife uses it for spreadsheet equations. She has to verifiy and test every answer but then so would anything written by an intern.
So yeah, AI is killing jobs, not in an individual sense, but in aggregate like spreadsheet software did 50 years ago when before that all work was done by hand.
That’s just making one person do the job of more than one. I call bs.
That’s just making one person do the job of more than one.
Capitalism has been doing that long before LLM’S.
That’s just making one person do the job of more than one.
How do you call bs on one person doing the work that used to take two? It was one person and an intern.
Every company had a secretary pool 60 years ago before word processors allowed people to type by themselves without an extra support person.
People could have always learned to type, that part didn’t change much with the switch to computers. I think they just liked having secretaries around back in the day and were willing to pay for it.
Typing quickly on a mechanical typewriter is a skill not easily mastered. It’s not just the typing, it is the extreme accuracy needed. There’s no backspace and no cut and paste. A letter covered in white out isn’t acceptable.
aka ‘Productivity increase’
Productivity has increased for decades without much of it going to wage increases. Instead, it’s gone to the companies/shareholders
Lmao replaces all human labor? ChatGPT can’t change my tires. It can’t even write decent code without direct supervision
It doesn’t matter if it works, if investors think it does that is enough for them to throw money at it.
It’s a lot better at writing code than most people think.
That’s says more about how bad the average developer is tbh.
I use it everyday. It needs oversight every single time I use it… It isn’t replacing developers any time soon. Code monkeys maybe.
I thought they’re 20 billion below the expected revenue doesn’t say loss. Is this from another source?
Yep, no way they’re ever going to be profitable.
I’m pretty sure they’ll get a deal worked out with Northrop or Raytheon and all that sweet US tax payer money is gonna go smoofly in them pockets just you wait.
Could they not have asked their top-tier LLM for advice on how to avoid this massive loss? No? Oh.
Oh no! If only someone could buy then once they go into bankruptcy… someone like… Microslop perhaps?
(mark my words, this will almost certainly happen)
OpenAI promised investors an AI gold rush. Now its projected annual revenue is reportedly $20 billion below earlier expectations. That’s not a rounding error: that’s an entire business empire missing from the spreadsheet. Silicon Valley keeps calling it a revolution, but increasingly it looks like a trillion dollar game of musical chairs, with investors hoping the music never stops.
Maybe he could sleep in the factory for a few weekends? P
they’ve really gotta stop offering avocado toast at the company cafeteria. That’ll make up the difference.
That’ll make up the difference.
Now that you bring this up…
Yes, I think you could have found the solution, indeed. Quick, tell them! The world is saved!!
Quit ordering the avocado toast.
I always think it’s funny how millennials got shit for avocado toast, yet it was my boomer parents who introduced it to me.
when I was a boy (GenX), avocados were so cheap, they almost gave them away
my mom complained one time when they were 25c
one of my friends that grew up in California had a tree in his back yard and he never purchased one until he moved to Washington State in his 20s
The fact that it became a target for attacking millennials is so crazy. That people took it seriously for a bit is laughable. To this day my wife and I make jokes that it costs a new mortgage to have one.
We had an avocado tree in the backyard growing up. It was so large that it hung quite a ways over the roof, which had terracotta shingles.
If we didn’t pull the ripe avocados off the tree it would sound like a small bomb going off every time one dropped and hit the roof, which usually happened early in the morning for some reason.
My brother worked at an avocado packing plant and he would bring me a BOX of ripe avocados that were too ripe to send to market.
We had to eat those NOW. All the FREE avocados I can eat. Good times.
Sigh. This comment reeks of AI slop
And even the fifty billions may be inflated, as it is “annualized” revenue which can mean “we took a period of peak usage and generalized it to a year”
Didn’t Anthropic calculate it based on the best day and multiplying by 365?
I didn’t wanna claim it when I wasn’t sure of the source but yeah that’s what I remember too
If I reported my income this way it would be fraud (and I would also “make” over 200k).
- They are not reporting their income, but AAR apparently
- Yes, this is a scam.
Its a trillion dollar game of musical chairs with roughly 8.3 billion people playing and only a few thousand chairs.
That’s just life you’re describing. Life in capitalism, that is.
You gotta admit though the tempo of the music is getting pretty fast these days.
Miiiighty fast. And if you aren’t born with your name on one of the chairs, you’re not even in the game.
Nah, far from everyone wants to be a trillionaire, nor a billionaire. Sure most would want financial independence, but not a lot more than that
Ahh but you are falling into a common fallacy, you probably think that because there is enough money to go around everyone should have a enough to meet their needs, then the excess can be an incentive for people who make outsized contributions to society, like a not sociopathic member of the human race.
The bloodsucking leech class view the existence of other people with needs as a personal insult. They feel every cent of money should be theirs personally, or as a barely acceptable compromise maybe shared around an “elite” class.
If Bezos for instance could have all the money and just issue Amazon Bucks™ based on how useful you are to him he would love that.
Honestly the reason we know Elon isn’t a real gamer is that he doesn’t have a bunch of four “agents” in trenchcoats with neuralinks and miniguns running around cities as he directs them to from an airship overhead. Otherwise that game would be as close to a masturbatory fantasy as someone who can’t get hard after all the Special K would get.
This account reeks of clanker. Are people just okay with that or am I missing something?
Don’t have the energy to look into the account itself, but this comment does have that “it’s not just x it’s y” stank. It’s everywhere nowadays, it’s fucking exhausting.
In blog posts, in news articles, YouTube videos and now in fucking lemmy comments. Disgusting.
It’s just revenue, not profit. Don’t worry.
Same thing just happened with Anthropics numbers. Billions short of their stated numbers.
Who could have known this would happen?
Why do you sound like the House of El?
It’s an LLM adbot.
The accounts profile heavily advertises services for LLM adbots covertly advertising to people using social media.
Search is garbage now, but I’d bet even money he is lifting text directly from House of El–or they have a common source.
I’ve felt for a while that House of El uses LLMs heavily in their scripts. It’s a pandemic on YouTube feels like.
So yeah, the common source is likely clanker speak.
Nothing an injection of taxpayers money can’t fix!
cant happen soon enough
I dunno, iheartmedia was heavily in debt for over a decade. I don’t think this bubble is popping anytime soon
This is the first major real sign of the bubble popping. An actual verified report from the Financial Times regarding massive drop in revenue expectations, rather than just people hoping it pops.
I believe the implosion of the AI bubble will essentially torpedo the only thing still supporting the US economy?
I desire the collapse so much.
I own nothing of value, I lose nothing.
Good piece of financial advice. You’re assets can’t lose value if you have none ;)
I am with you the whole way, friend. I love seeing the stock market crash. Brings them all down closer to our daily level.
As a person with assets, I will gladly watch them burn together with AI. Can we be done with this tomfoolery already please.
Shenanigans, poppycockery, cockamamie, and a basic lack of respect for the institutions god damn it, I ain’t having it!
So you selfishly want others to fail and yourself to thrive. That’s an honest position, but perhaps not very ethical.
They started it.
It’s not about me vs. others, I just want the people investing in harmful tech to fail. Not for personal reasons, just so there will be less harmful tech in the future. But those investors might learn something, and that would be welcome.
I want it to go away too. But there is so much of everything tied up in this boom to think you won’t be affected is naive.
For a taste of what to expect watch this: https://youtu.be/T9d6lrvzM9o?is=XvTpsKub8SB48lgt
